New Delhi: With the announcement of dates for the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections, the political temperature in the national capital has soared. The big question on everyone’s mind: Who will form the government this time? A recent survey by Times Now-JVC has added to the buzz, predicting a closely fought battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
AAP’s Welfare Promises Drive Initial Advantage
AAP, known for its pro-welfare promises, is banking heavily on its newly announced ₹2,100 monthly financial aid for women voters. According to the survey, this announcement could significantly sway women voters, with 55% of women likely to vote for AAP, compared to 39% for BJP and a mere 5% for Congress.
Overall, the survey predicts AAP securing around 51.20% of total votes (approximately 51.3 lakh votes), while BJP is projected to garner 40.63% (about 40.7 lakh votes). Congress, struggling to regain relevance, might only secure 6.2% votes, with other parties accounting for just 1.54%.
Regarding seat projections, AAP could win 56-60 seats, leaving BJP with 10-14 seats, while Congress is unlikely to open its account.
What if BJP Matches AAP’s Promises?
The survey explores an alternative scenario where BJP launches a women-focused scheme similar to its Ladli Behna Yojana in other states. If BJP makes such a promise, it is projected to attract 45% of women voters, with AAP’s share dropping slightly to 50%. Congress and others would trail behind with 4% and 1%, respectively.
In this case, AAP’s projected vote share would drop to 47.29% (approximately 47.37 lakh votes), while BJP would climb to 44.99% (approximately 45.05 lakh votes). Congress would secure 6.16%, leaving others at 1.54%.
The seat count in this scenario is expected to be tightly contested, with AAP winning 33-37 seats and BJP securing 33-36 seats. Congress could manage a single seat.
Congress Could Tip the Scales
A third scenario involves Congress aggressively pushing its ₹2,500 “Pyari Didi” scheme and other welfare promises. If Congress campaigns effectively, it could capture 7.5% of the vote share, causing AAP’s share to dip to 44.74% and BJP’s to rise to 46.16%.
In such a situation, the BJP is projected to gain a clear advantage, winning 37-41 seats, while AAP may fall short of the majority with 27-33 seats. Despite a slight improvement, Congress might win only 0-2 seats.
A Close Fight Awaits Delhi
The survey highlights that the Delhi Assembly elections of 2025 are shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history. AAP’s welfare-focused strategy has given it an edge, but BJP’s potential promises could turn the tide. Congress, though a distant third, might emerge as a spoiler, further complicating the contest.
As campaigning heats up, all eyes will be on how parties fine-tune their promises and strategies to win over Delhi’s diverse electorate. One thing is clear—the battle for Delhi promises to be intense and unpredictable.
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